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Leading index declines for the fifth month; points to mild recession by year end, early 2023

Mount Equity Group Tokyo Japan > News > Markets > Leading index declines for the fifth month; points to mild recession by year end, early 2023

August 18, 2022

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index fell for the fifth consecutive month in July, suggesting no economic growth in the third quarter and elevated recession risk by the end of the year.

It fell 0.4% in July to a level of 116.6 (2016=100). The dip follows a decline of 0.7% in June.

The index also dropped 1.6% from January to July, a reversal from its 1.6% growth over the previous six months.

“The US LEI declined for a fifth consecutive month in July, suggesting recession risks are rising in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board.

“Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction, and manufacturing new orders suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly…

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