Initial Jobless Claims
Universal Value Advisors
The biggest surprise this past week was the unexpectedly large rise in the Payroll Employment Report, at +528K, more than double what appeared to be an optimistic consensus estimate of +250K. Most of the major equity indexes eked out a slightly positive week (see table), but neither the equity nor the fixed income markets liked the Payroll number because it warrants more Fed hawkishness.
Equities Peaks
Universal Value Advisors
In bond land, on Friday (August 5), the 10-Yr. Treasury closed at 2.83%, up from 2.66% on Wednesday. Since mid-June, yields had been moving lower as the bond market was pricing in a Recession scenario in which the Fed would begin its pivot toward ease in early 2023. The 10-Yr. Treasury had nearly touched 3.50% in mid-June. The 2-Yr. Treasury closed at 3.23% on Friday, up a whopping 20 basis points (bps) from…
