Commentary
Why have economic crises ‘sneaked up’ on us humans for so long?
Sure, there have always been lonely voices warning about an approaching collapse, but they have usually been met with laughter and ridicule. Nothing is naturally more rewarding for a forecaster than earning the ability to say “I told you so” without ever needing to speak or write those words aloud. I am closing in on that point now.
We, GnS Economics, have been in the forecasting business since 2012. First, it was more of a hobby, where we tested how the models and theories we developed in academia worked in “real life”. Everything changed after I started to feel uneasy on the path of the world economy in late 2016. Something felt wrong, but I couldn’t put my finger on it.
During New Year’s holiday my ex-wife, who was reading Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow which deals, e.g., with biases in forecasting, said to me why won’t you…
