Could the world be headed for another recession?
Just as the global economy is bouncing back from the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing list of risks is clouding the economic outlook – although most economists still believe a recession this year is relatively unlikely.
The war in Ukraine, Russia sanctions, China’s “zero COVID” policies, spiking inflation, and interest hikes by the United States Federal Reserve are all set to crimp growth in 2022.
The question is whether deteriorating conditions and ill-judged policy choices could tip the global economy from a slowdown into a contraction.
“Recessions are incredibly hard to predict, and even good forecasters, e.g. the Fed, only know we’re experiencing a recession once we’re in one, not in advance,” Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at the George Washington University in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera.
“In general policymakers underweight recessions in their forecasts…