Outlook: Today we get US GDP for Q1 and remember that yesterday, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow had lowered its forecast from 1.3% to 0.4%, on consumer lassitude. (Tomorrow’s eurozone GDP is expected at 0.3%, by the way.) The Conference Board has 1.5%. We also get the usual jobless claims today, which show the rearview mirror of Q1 GDP likely not having any influence on sentiment at all. When jobs are still on the upswing, despite peculiar participation rates, it’s hard to talk of a slowdown. Besides, in Q1, we were still coming off the latest Covid surge, which peaked around the first week of January.
The relative return theme attracts a higher number of traders every day with no end in sight. He who has the highest rate wins and notice that’s nominal rates, not the real ones. So, with the US about to raise by 50 bp, the dollar wins regardless of any other “high-frequency” data. Canada loses, but only a…
