A person removes the nozel from a pump at a gas station on July 29, 2022 in Arlington, Virginia.
Olivier Douliery | AFP | Getty Images
You’d be hard-pressed now to find a recession in the rearview mirror. What’s down the road, though, is another story.
There is no historical precedent to indicate that an economy in recession can produce 528,000 jobs in a month, as the U.S. did during July. A 3.5% unemployment rate, tied for the lowest since 1969, is not consistent with contraction.
But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a recession ahead, and, ironically enough, it is the labor market’s phenomenal resiliency that could pose the broader economy’s biggest long-run danger. The Federal Reserve is trying to ease pressures on a historically tight jobs situation and its rapid wage gains in an effort control inflation running at its highest level in more than 40 years.
“The fact of the matter is this gives the Fed additional room to continue to…
