David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, speaks at the Bloomberg Global … [+] Inflation Conference in New York.
© 2011 Bloomberg Finance LP
The U.S. economy may be heading for another downturn within the next six months if sagging consumer expectations are any guide, according to new research from ex-Bank of England member David Blanchflower.
It’s a counterintuitive prediction given all the talk of recovery and inflation fears permeating the economic debate at the moment. U.S. gross domestic product soared an annualized 6.7% in the second quarter while consumer prices are running at 5.4% in the year to September.
But Blanchflower, now at Dartmouth College, and his co-author Alex Bryson, suggest the above figures are merely offering a look into the rear-view mirror.
“It seems to us that there is every likelihood that the United States entered recession at the end of…